Zillow Called an Early Winter. Metro Detroit's Row in the Same Report Says Something Else.

On October 6 Zillow released its September market report and the headline wrote itself: newly pending sales down 8.5 percent from a year ago and 11.2 percent from August, which Zillow described as an early winter for housing. Two days later Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 7.40 percent, the seventh straight weekly increase and the highest reading since November 2023. Redfin added that pending sales nationally sit at their lowest level in nearly three years. Put those together and the story this week is that buyers went home.

I read the whole table. The Detroit metro row in Zillow's report tells a different story than the national paragraph above it, and if you are shopping in Oakland, Macomb, Wayne, Washtenaw, or Livingston County, it is the row you should be reading.

The Detroit Row

Zillow's typical home value for the Detroit metro came in at $264,838 in September, down 0.7 percent from August and up 1.5 percent from a year ago. For-sale inventory is up 6.6 percent year over year. Nationally, inventory is up 2.5 percent. Our supply is growing at more than twice the national pace. Zillow's sales nowcast for the metro is down 7.7 percent, so fewer buyers are competing for more homes. Typical rent in the metro rose 4.2 percent to $1,514, the kind of number that keeps the buy-versus-rent question alive even at 7.4 percent.

Our own September market update, published last week, lines up with that. Oakland County moved to 3.2 months of supply, up 23.1 percent from a year ago and the highest September reading in three years. The county median settled at $380,000, down from $395,000 in August on the normal seasonal pattern but still 1.3 percent above last September. Sellers closed at 99.5 percent of asking after getting the full 100 percent in August, and the average home took 37 days to go under contract. More listings, slightly longer marketing times, prices holding. That is a market loosening from a very tight starting point, not a market rolling over.

What the Monthly Dip Means, and What It Does Not

The 0.7 percent monthly decline in Zillow's Detroit index is the first thing a nervous buyer will point to. Keep it in proportion. Values drift down most Septembers as the spring premium comes out of the comps, and a 0.7 percent move on a $265,000 typical value is about $1,850. In every cycle I have worked, the sellers who hold through a slow fall are the ones who were never in a hurry, and the sellers who adjust are the ones who are. Your job as a buyer is to find the second group, and rising inventory is what makes that possible.

How to Shop an Early Winter

• •Sort by days on market, not by newest. Oakland County is averaging 37 days to an accepted offer, so a home past 45 days has a seller who has had time to recalibrate.
• •Ask for a 2-1 buydown before you ask for a price cut. A price cut saves you a few dollars a month. A buydown resets your first two years of payments and leaves the seller's number intact for the appraisal.
• •Get fully underwritten at 7.40 percent and say so in the offer. Sellers are reading the same headlines you are, and a buyer who is already approved is worth more to them than one who is a quarter point lower on paper.
• •Do not assume a discount everywhere. Redfin's latest four-week read had about a quarter of homes nationally still selling above list. A finished, correctly priced house in a tight Oakland County submarket still moves fast.

Zillow is right that the national market went quiet early this year. It is also publishing, in the same report, the best buyer conditions metro Detroit has offered in a while: more homes, fewer competing buyers, and prices that have held rather than broken. If you want the Detroit row run against the specific cities you are watching, reach the team at thepatrickgrp.com/contact, or start with a valuation at thepatrickgrp.com/home-valuation.